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Polls show toss-up for Arizona governor, Dems hold edge for Senate

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

If the last few election cycles have taught us anything, it’s that polling is far from an exact science.

  • The 2016 and 2020 elections were notorious for polling that was off the mark in presidential and U.S. Senate races.

Yes, but: It’s still the primary way people measure how competitive a race is, and based on the results in Arizona, several key races are up for grabs.

Senate

Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly has consistently held the upper hand against Republican challenger Blake Masters.

FiveThirtyEight

Based on an average of 14 polls, FiveThirtyEight gives Kelly a 6.5-percentage point edge over Masters.

  • Kelly led all 14 polls used for the average, with leads ranging from 1 to 21 percentage points.
  • The first two polls from September had Kelly leading by 20…

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